ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
fffrenloss 0:1series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 0:1
KZ TEAMwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
fffren
No games played over 6 months.
KZ TEAM
Rubick
dEsire · 16 games
Oraclesignature
SsaSpartan · 13 games
Mirana
dEsire · 11 games
Shadow Demon
SsaSpartan · 11 games
Legion Commandersignature
SkyLark · 10 games
Lycanoften banned
SkyLark · 10 games
Pangoliersignature
W1sh- · 10 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
W1sh- · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
216 picks · 271 bans
Grimstroke
184 picks · 183 bans
Pangolier
183 picks · 387 bans
Dark Willow
176 picks · 73 bans
Earthshaker
169 picks · 166 bans
Sven
169 picks · 248 bans
Earth Spirit
152 picks · 244 bans
Phoenix
150 picks · 205 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 55%
Hero pool strength52% KZ TEAM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% KZ TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:30
fffren 24%KZ TEAM 76%
The model gave 76% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by KZ TEAM in 21:48.
Model check result
Model favoriteKZ TEAM · 76%
Series resultKZ TEAM 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1