IESF World Esports Championship 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
Филиппиныwin 2:1series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Австралияloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Филиппины
Lifestealeroften banned
Akashi · 1 game
Slarkoften banned
Akashi · 1 game
Templar Assassinoften banned
Akashi · 1 game
Австралия
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Marci
372 picks · 593 bans
Tiny
326 picks · 228 bans
Undying
304 picks · 540 bans
Primal Beast
253 picks · 486 bans
Pangolier
249 picks · 381 bans
Tusk
243 picks · 151 bans
Shadow Fiend
215 picks · 282 bans
Enigma
207 picks · 714 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 44%
Hero pool strength54% Филиппины
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Филиппины
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct59:25
Филиппины 66%Австралия 34%
The model gave 66% on Филиппины — the game was taken by Филиппины in 38:04.
Game 2prediction missed24:41
Филиппины 66%Австралия 34%
The model gave 66% on Филиппины — the game was taken by Австралия in 47:28.
Game 3prediction correct47:28
Филиппины 66%Австралия 34%
The model gave 66% on Филиппины — the game was taken by Филиппины in 41:18.
Model check result
Model favoriteФилиппины · 66%
Series resultФилиппины 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3