BetBoom Dacha Belgrade 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionFBFive Beaversloss 0:2
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Hydrawin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Five Beavers
Underlordoften banned
мистер мораль · 5 games
Timbersawoften banned
мистер мораль · 4 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
PERDAN4IK · 3 games
Windrangeroften banned
Otaker · 3 games
Batrideroften banned
PERDAN4IK · 2 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
PERDAN4IK · 2 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Otaker · 1 game
Jakiro
PERDAN4IK · 1 game
Hydra
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Actor · 3 games
Rubick
jAMES · 3 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Ethereal · 3 games
Underlordoften banned
Actor · 3 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Ethereal · 2 games
Sniperoften banned
jAMES · 2 games
Tidehunter
Actor · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
ani-san · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
349 picks · 259 bans
Rubick
341 picks · 331 bans
Hoodwink
338 picks · 387 bans
Pangolier
331 picks · 484 bans
Snapfire
308 picks · 267 bans
Sven
290 picks · 303 bans
Dragon Knight
286 picks · 445 bans
Enchantress
285 picks · 473 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 47%
Hero pool strength57% Five Beavers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:44
Five Beavers 51%Hydra 49%
The model gave 51% on Five Beavers — the game was taken by Hydra in 34:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WindrangerOtaker
PuckEthereal
MiranaPERDAN4IK
Morphlingselfhate
Underlordмистер мораль
KunkkaActor
47% · 67 games
Dark Willowani-san
Game 2prediction correct21:38
Five Beavers 50%Hydra 50%
The model gave 50% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 37:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaOtaker
Nature's Prophetselfhate
Kunkkaмистер мораль
Centaur WarrunnerActor
TuskPERDAN4IK
InvokerEthereal
47% · 83 games
Snapfireani-san
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 53%
Series resultHydra 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2