PGL Wallachia Season 7. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Flame Esportsloss 0:1series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 0:1
TRTeam rocket xwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Flame Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Team rocket x
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
536 picks · 864 bans
Tusk
516 picks · 378 bans
Dragon Knight
473 picks · 640 bans
Centaur Warrunner
458 picks · 593 bans
Shadow Demon
393 picks · 793 bans
Gyrocopter
351 picks · 577 bans
Ember Spirit
350 picks · 558 bans
Mars
341 picks · 488 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 40%
Hero pool strength50% Flame Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Flame Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Flame Esports 57%Team rocket x 43%
The model gave 57% on Flame Esports — the game was taken by Team rocket x.
Model check result
Model favoriteFlame Esports · 57%
Series resultTeam rocket x 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1