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European Pro League Season 38 · BO3
result vs prediction
Flame Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Spirit Academywin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Flame Esports

Rubick
Rubick
Jeezy · 9 games
56%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
emptiness · 5 games
60%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Jeezy · 4 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Stoic · 3 games
33%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Stoic · 3 games
67%
Windranger
Windranger
legacy · 3 games
33%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Stoic · 2 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
emptiness · 2 games
100%

Team Spirit Academy

Jakiro
Jakiro
kyford · 17 games
29%
Lion
Lion
Aidar · 17 games
47%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Aidar · 15 games
27%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Aidar · 13 games
23%
Dazzle
Dazzle
kyford · 11 games
36%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
86 · 11 games
45%
Warlock
Warlock
kyford · 11 games
27%
Batrider
Batridersignature
rubikon155 · 10 games
70%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
635 picks · 435 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
564 picks · 313 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
482 picks · 587 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
454 picks · 391 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
435 picks · 653 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
352 picks · 1024 bans
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
350 picks · 528 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
342 picks · 300 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 39%
Hero pool strength58% Flame Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Flame Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:50
Flame Esports 50%Team Spirit Academy 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Spirit Academy — the game was taken by Team Spirit Academy in 59:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaDeles
43% · 78 games56% · 111 games
Largo86
Largo
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneremptiness
48% · 135 games51% · 192 games
Underlordkae
Underlord
Ringmaster
RingmasterJeezy
44% · 118 games48% · 51 game
TechiesAidar
Techies
Clockwerk
ClockwerkStoic
49% · 117 games60% · 94 games
Treant Protectorkyford
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction missed55:58
Flame Esports 53%Team Spirit Academy 47%
The model gave 53% on Flame Esports — the game was taken by Team Spirit Academy in 1:12:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerDeles
55% · 40 games43% · 26 games
Zeus86
Zeus
Timbersaw
Timbersawemptiness
49% · 99 games57% · 78 games
GrimstrokeAidar
Grimstroke
Rubick
RubickJeezy
41% · 106 games51% · 196 games
Axekae
Axe
Tusk
TuskStoic
45% · 223 games56% · 168 games
Banekyford
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteFlame Esports · 53%
Series resultTeam Spirit Academy 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2