PGL Wallachia Season 6. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Flamewin 2:0series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
CBChicleteira Bicicleteiraloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Flame
Huskaroften banned
Adrx · 2 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
S1RENM · 2 games
Bristleback
Adrx · 1 game
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Argius · 1 game
Leshrac
S1RENM · 1 game
Luna
Argius · 1 game
Lycanoften banned
Adrx · 1 game
Morphlingoften banned
Argius · 1 game
Chicleteira Bicicleteira
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
383 picks · 347 bans
Puck
340 picks · 858 bans
Snapfire
340 picks · 170 bans
Pugna
295 picks · 339 bans
Tusk
282 picks · 247 bans
Warlock
282 picks · 126 bans
Dawnbreaker
280 picks · 790 bans
Batrider
272 picks · 683 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 50%
Hero pool strength58% Flame
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Flame
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Flame 58%Chicleteira Bicicleteira 42%
The model gave 58% on Flame — the game was taken by Flame.
Game 2prediction correct
Flame 58%Chicleteira Bicicleteira 42%
The model gave 58% on Flame — the game was taken by Flame.
Model check result
Model favoriteFlame · 58%
Series resultFlame 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2