?
arrow_backBack to match
ESL One Birmingham 2026. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Flameloss 1:2
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 1:2
x5 Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Flame

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
S1RENM · 6 games
67%
Huskar
Huskaroften banned
Adrx · 4 games
50%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
S1RENM · 3 games
67%
Tinker
Tinkeroften banned
Adrx · 3 games
67%
Luna
Luna
Argius · 2 games
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Argius · 2 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Argius · 2 games
50%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Adrx · 1 game
100%

x5 Gaming

Sniper
Sniperoften banned
Pamplona · 6 games
33%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Hermit · 4 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Hermit · 2 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
mini-` · 1 game
0%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Pamplona · 1 game
100%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Hermit · 1 game
0%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Hermit · 1 game
0%
Muerta
Muerta
mini-` · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
537 picks · 746 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
483 picks · 341 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
460 picks · 634 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
438 picks · 543 bans
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
370 picks · 645 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
356 picks · 549 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
337 picks · 461 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
335 picks · 148 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% Flame
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% x5 Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:21
Flame 44%x5 Gaming 56%
The model gave 56% on x5 Gaming — the game was taken by Flame in 38:40.
Game 2prediction correct16:18
Flame 44%x5 Gaming 56%
The model gave 56% on x5 Gaming — the game was taken by x5 Gaming in 31:58.
Game 3prediction correct
Flame 44%x5 Gaming 56%
The model gave 56% on x5 Gaming — the game was taken by x5 Gaming.
Model check result
Model favoritex5 Gaming · 56%
Series resultx5 Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3