FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionFHfluke housewin 2:0
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TSTeam setunaaloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
fluke house
No games played over 6 months.
Team setunaa
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
298 picks · 192 bans
Puck
291 picks · 672 bans
Dark Willow
260 picks · 108 bans
Tusk
256 picks · 254 bans
Dawnbreaker
254 picks · 626 bans
Nature's Prophet
250 picks · 525 bans
Marci
244 picks · 543 bans
Batrider
241 picks · 678 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% fluke house
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% fluke house
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
fluke house 69%Team setunaa 31%
The model gave 69% on fluke house — the game was taken by fluke house.
Game 2prediction correct
fluke house 69%Team setunaa 31%
The model gave 69% on fluke house — the game was taken by fluke house.
Model check result
Model favoritefluke house · 69%
Series resultfluke house 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2