Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — ЮВА 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Fnaticwin 2:0series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
496 Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fnatic
No games played over 6 months.
496 Gaming
Earth Spiritsignature
NARMAN · 8 games
Winter Wyvern
Bombi · 6 games
Brewmaster
Red · 4 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Red · 3 games
Batrideroften banned
Red · 2 games
Bloodseeker
Red · 2 games
Clockwerk
NARMAN · 2 games
Elder Titan
NARMAN · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
230 picks · 491 bans
Void Spirit
212 picks · 266 bans
Mars
203 picks · 363 bans
Earth Spirit
184 picks · 151 bans
Keeper of the Light
161 picks · 262 bans
Phoenix
158 picks · 181 bans
Nyx Assassin
152 picks · 495 bans
Wraith King
143 picks · 185 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% 496 Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Fnatic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:35
Fnatic 61%496 Gaming 39%
The model gave 61% on Fnatic — the game was taken by 496 Gaming in 32:36.
Game 2prediction missed21:48
Fnatic 61%496 Gaming 39%
The model gave 61% on Fnatic — the game was taken by 496 Gaming in 33:17.
Model check result
Model favoriteFnatic · 61%
Series resultFnatic 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2