The International 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Fnaticwin 2:0series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 2:0
beastcoastloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fnatic
No games played over 6 months.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
506 picks · 389 bans
Marci
443 picks · 678 bans
Death Prophet
301 picks · 462 bans
Puck
286 picks · 691 bans
Dawnbreaker
276 picks · 398 bans
Undying
270 picks · 477 bans
Batrider
248 picks · 855 bans
Chen
248 picks · 512 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)28% vs 41%
Hero pool strength50% Fnatic
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total60% beastcoast
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:18
Fnatic 40%beastcoast 60%
The model gave 60% on beastcoast — the game was taken by beastcoast in 36:22.
Game 2prediction correct31:6
Fnatic 40%beastcoast 60%
The model gave 60% on beastcoast — the game was taken by beastcoast in 28:57.
Model check result
Model favoritebeastcoast · 60%
Series resultFnatic 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2