Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Fnaticwin 2:0series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Execrationloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fnatic
No games played over 6 months.
Execration
Linaoften banned
Bob · 17 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Bob · 17 games
Abaddonsignature
RR · 13 games
Marsoften banned
Tino- · 12 games
Pucksignature
Bob · 12 games
Batridersignature
Bob · 10 games
Tinyoften banned
Tino- · 9 games
Ancient Apparitionsignature
RR · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
426 picks · 305 bans
Mars
397 picks · 580 bans
Queen of Pain
326 picks · 380 bans
Weaver
324 picks · 743 bans
Snapfire
323 picks · 177 bans
Kunkka
250 picks · 440 bans
Spirit Breaker
243 picks · 351 bans
Disruptor
238 picks · 163 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 28%
Hero pool strength54% Execration
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total72% Fnatic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed41:11
Fnatic 72%Execration 28%
The model gave 72% on Fnatic — the game was taken by Execration in 38:02.
Game 2prediction missed15:31
Fnatic 72%Execration 28%
The model gave 72% on Fnatic — the game was taken by Execration in 26:44.
Model check result
Model favoriteFnatic · 72%
Series resultFnatic 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2