PGL Arlington Major 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
Fnaticloss 0:2series probability
22%78%
probability at match start · final 0:2
LGD Gamingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fnatic
No games played over 6 months.
LGD Gaming
Razorsignature
Faith_bian · 13 games
Death Prophetsignature
Faith_bian · 11 games
Doomsignature
Faith_bian · 11 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Ame · 11 games
Tinysignature
XinQ · 11 games
Warlocksignature
y` · 11 games
Ember Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 10 games
Faceless Voidsignature
Ame · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
664 picks · 481 bans
Puck
467 picks · 969 bans
Dawnbreaker
386 picks · 476 bans
Snapfire
370 picks · 190 bans
Marci
345 picks · 666 bans
Mars
338 picks · 556 bans
Dragon Knight
312 picks · 426 bans
Monkey King
304 picks · 624 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 67%
Hero pool strength62% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total78% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:12
Fnatic 22%LGD Gaming 78%
The model gave 78% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 32:17.
Game 2prediction correct21:24
Fnatic 22%LGD Gaming 78%
The model gave 78% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 40:49.
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 78%
Series resultLGD Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2