Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — ЮВА 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Fnaticwin 2:0series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Lilgunloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fnatic
No games played over 6 months.
Lilgun
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
409 picks · 973 bans
Void Spirit
376 picks · 528 bans
Death Prophet
344 picks · 714 bans
Mars
340 picks · 561 bans
Grimstroke
332 picks · 333 bans
Lion
307 picks · 167 bans
Tusk
302 picks · 223 bans
Earth Spirit
272 picks · 283 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 48%
Hero pool strength50% Fnatic
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% Fnatic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:23
Fnatic 75%Lilgun 25%
The model gave 75% on Fnatic — the game was taken by Lilgun in 29:08.
Game 2prediction missed33:25
Fnatic 75%Lilgun 25%
The model gave 75% on Fnatic — the game was taken by Lilgun in 42:02.
Model check result
Model favoriteFnatic · 75%
Series resultFnatic 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2