BTS Pro Series Season 13: ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Fnaticwin 2:1series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Lilgunloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fnatic
No games played over 6 months.
Lilgun
Tusk
ace12 · 4 games
Arc Wardenoften banned
423 · 2 games
Clockwerk
Se · 2 games
Lone Druidoften banned
423 · 2 games
Silencer
Se · 2 games
Visageoften banned
eleven · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
423 · 1 game
Broodmotheroften banned
eleven · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Marci
353 picks · 575 bans
Tiny
342 picks · 241 bans
Undying
292 picks · 517 bans
Tusk
262 picks · 168 bans
Pangolier
255 picks · 405 bans
Primal Beast
249 picks · 496 bans
Shadow Fiend
217 picks · 286 bans
Enigma
204 picks · 684 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 24%
Hero pool strength60% Lilgun
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total80% Fnatic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:25
Fnatic 80%Lilgun 20%
The model gave 80% on Fnatic — the game was taken by Lilgun in 50:12.
Game 2prediction missed40:19
Fnatic 80%Lilgun 20%
The model gave 80% on Fnatic — the game was taken by Lilgun in 39:37.
Game 3prediction missed15:34
Fnatic 80%Lilgun 20%
The model gave 80% on Fnatic — the game was taken by Lilgun in 30:31.
Model check result
Model favoriteFnatic · 80%
Series resultFnatic 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3