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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Fnaticwin 2:1
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Polaris Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Fnatic

No games played over 6 months.

Polaris Esports

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Force · 14 games
79%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Force · 13 games
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Boomy · 10 games
80%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Mac · 10 games
70%
Lion
Lionsignature
cml · 10 games
70%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
cml · 10 games
80%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Mac · 8 games
88%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Force · 8 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
460 picks · 273 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
405 picks · 533 bans
56%
Weaver
Weaver
340 picks · 443 bans
53%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
325 picks · 488 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
311 picks · 544 bans
54%
Kunkka
Kunkka
279 picks · 505 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
276 picks · 295 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
268 picks · 370 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 59%
Hero pool strength60% Polaris Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Fnatic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed6:26
Fnatic 54%Polaris Esports 46%
The model gave 54% on Fnatic — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 30:28.
Game 2prediction missed35:34
Fnatic 54%Polaris Esports 46%
The model gave 54% on Fnatic — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 1:13:52.
Game 3prediction missed38:31
Fnatic 54%Polaris Esports 46%
The model gave 54% on Fnatic — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 1:03:20.
Model check result
Model favoriteFnatic · 54%
Series resultFnatic 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3