Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Fnaticwin 2:1series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:1
RSGloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fnatic
No games played over 6 months.
RSG
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
503 picks · 449 bans
Mars
489 picks · 695 bans
Bane
464 picks · 287 bans
Dragon Knight
437 picks · 528 bans
Sand King
408 picks · 559 bans
Storm Spirit
402 picks · 645 bans
Pangolier
375 picks · 616 bans
Grimstroke
361 picks · 310 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 55%
Hero pool strength50% Fnatic
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Fnatic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed44:18
Fnatic 56%RSG 44%
The model gave 56% on Fnatic — the game was taken by RSG in 45:02.
Game 2prediction missed36:18
Fnatic 56%RSG 44%
The model gave 56% on Fnatic — the game was taken by RSG in 32:47.
Game 3prediction missed29:4
Fnatic 56%RSG 44%
The model gave 56% on Fnatic — the game was taken by RSG in 30:00.
Model check result
Model favoriteFnatic · 56%
Series resultFnatic 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3