The International 10 (2021) · BO2
result vs prediction
Fnaticloss 0:2series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 0:2
SG e-sportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fnatic
No games played over 6 months.
SG e-sports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
307 picks · 179 bans
Lina
284 picks · 538 bans
Mars
283 picks · 405 bans
Hoodwink
266 picks · 91 bans
Pangolier
261 picks · 371 bans
Shadow Demon
245 picks · 257 bans
Luna
228 picks · 325 bans
Tidehunter
219 picks · 375 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 23%
Hero pool strength50% Fnatic
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Fnatic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:17
Fnatic 66%SG e-sports 34%
The model gave 66% on Fnatic — the game was taken by SG e-sports in 53:22.
Game 2prediction missed35:42
Fnatic 66%SG e-sports 34%
The model gave 66% on Fnatic — the game was taken by SG e-sports in 1:04:42.
Model check result
Model favoriteFnatic · 66%
Series resultSG e-sports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2