Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. ЮВА. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Fnaticwin 2:0series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Talon Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fnatic
No games played over 6 months.
Talon Esports
Pangoliersignature
Mikoto · 15 games
Enchantressoften banned
Hyde · 12 games
Tinyoften banned
Xepher · 12 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
kpii · 11 games
Marcioften banned
Q · 11 games
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 10 games
Tusk
Q · 10 games
Undyingoften banned
Hyde · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
391 picks · 380 bans
Tiny
348 picks · 354 bans
Rubick
325 picks · 227 bans
Mirana
284 picks · 284 bans
Snapfire
208 picks · 111 bans
Crystal Maiden
206 picks · 148 bans
Treant Protector
204 picks · 261 bans
Pangolier
190 picks · 520 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 60%
Hero pool strength53% Talon Esports
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total68% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:35
Fnatic 32%Talon Esports 68%
The model gave 68% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 49:46.
Game 2prediction correct32:14
Fnatic 32%Talon Esports 68%
The model gave 68% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 40:17.
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 68%
Series resultFnatic 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2