The International 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Fnaticloss 1:1series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Secretloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fnatic
No games played over 6 months.
Team Secret
Chensignature
Puppey · 19 games
Razoroften banned
Crystallis · 18 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 16 games
Clockwerksignature
Puppey · 15 games
Tusksignature
Zayac · 14 games
Enchantressoften banned
Puppey · 12 games
Beastmastersignature
Resolut1on · 11 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Resolut1on · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
496 picks · 386 bans
Marci
434 picks · 667 bans
Death Prophet
297 picks · 462 bans
Puck
285 picks · 687 bans
Dawnbreaker
275 picks · 394 bans
Undying
262 picks · 472 bans
Chen
248 picks · 508 bans
Winter Wyvern
247 picks · 331 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 52%
Hero pool strength55% Team Secret
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:35
Fnatic 38%Team Secret 62%
The model gave 62% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 50:53.
Game 2prediction correct19:48
Fnatic 38%Team Secret 62%
The model gave 62% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 49:07.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 62%
Accuracy by game2 of 2