The International 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Fnaticloss 1:1series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Spiritloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fnatic
No games played over 6 months.
Team Spirit
Tinysignature
Mira · 22 games
Rubicksignature
Mira · 18 games
Snapfiresignature
Mira · 14 games
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 13 games
Winter Wyvernoften banned
Miposhka · 12 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 11 games
Viperoften banned
Collapse · 11 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Mira · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
499 picks · 387 bans
Marci
427 picks · 652 bans
Death Prophet
294 picks · 461 bans
Puck
283 picks · 694 bans
Dawnbreaker
282 picks · 395 bans
Undying
256 picks · 451 bans
Winter Wyvern
253 picks · 334 bans
Batrider
248 picks · 830 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)31% vs 52%
Hero pool strength59% Team Spirit
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total63% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:5
Fnatic 37%Team Spirit 63%
The model gave 63% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 34:43.
Game 2prediction correct30:32
Fnatic 37%Team Spirit 63%
The model gave 63% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 49:49.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 63%
Accuracy by game2 of 2