OGA Dota PIT Invitational · BO3
result vs prediction
Fnaticwin 2:0series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Thunder Awakenloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fnatic
No games played over 6 months.
Thunder Awaken
Earth Spirit
MoOz · 13 games
Marsoften banned
Frank · 12 games
Phoenixsignature
Mjz · 11 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Frank · 9 games
Death Prophetsignature
Leostyle · 8 games
Oraclesignature
Mjz · 8 games
Pangoliersignature
Frank · 8 games
Wraith Kingsignature
Mnz · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
386 picks · 167 bans
Hoodwink
354 picks · 128 bans
Dragon Knight
261 picks · 347 bans
Nyx Assassin
258 picks · 521 bans
Lina
251 picks · 409 bans
Winter Wyvern
248 picks · 243 bans
Luna
247 picks · 332 bans
Puck
236 picks · 542 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 22%
Hero pool strength55% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Fnatic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:26
Fnatic 52%Thunder Awaken 48%
The model gave 52% on Fnatic — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 35:16.
Game 2prediction missed10:25
Fnatic 52%Thunder Awaken 48%
The model gave 52% on Fnatic — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 35:17.
Model check result
Model favoriteFnatic · 52%
Series resultFnatic 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2