Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — ЮВА 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Fnaticwin 2:1series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:1
TNC Predatorloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fnatic
No games played over 6 months.
TNC Predator
Marsoften banned
kpii · 5 games
Mirana
Tims · 5 games
Oracleoften banned
Febby · 5 games
Beastmasteroften banned
kpii · 4 games
Morphlingoften banned
Gabbi · 4 games
Tusk
Febby · 4 games
Disruptor
Febby · 3 games
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Armel · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
304 picks · 620 bans
Void Spirit
286 picks · 350 bans
Mars
246 picks · 427 bans
Earth Spirit
232 picks · 185 bans
Rubick
198 picks · 107 bans
Keeper of the Light
195 picks · 378 bans
Nyx Assassin
194 picks · 604 bans
Phoenix
189 picks · 224 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 60%
Hero pool strength57% TNC Predator
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Fnatic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:29
Fnatic 57%TNC Predator 43%
The model gave 57% on Fnatic — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 35:00.
Game 2prediction missed18:34
Fnatic 57%TNC Predator 43%
The model gave 57% on Fnatic — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 50:29.
Game 3prediction missed14:33
Fnatic 57%TNC Predator 43%
The model gave 57% on Fnatic — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 34:40.
Model check result
Model favoriteFnatic · 57%
Series resultFnatic 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3