?
arrow_backBack to match
The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO5
result vs prediction
Fnaticwin 3:2
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 3:2
TNC Predatorloss 2:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Fnatic

No games played over 6 months.

TNC Predator

Lion
Lionsignature
Tims · 15 games
60%
Puck
Pucksignature
Armel · 14 games
64%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Boomy · 13 games
54%
Tiny
Tiny
Armel · 13 games
46%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Armel · 12 games
75%
Mirana
Mirana
Tims · 12 games
42%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Boomy · 12 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Gabbi · 10 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
471 picks · 189 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
375 picks · 207 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
367 picks · 592 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
357 picks · 881 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
337 picks · 304 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
326 picks · 246 bans
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
317 picks · 439 bans
57%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
296 picks · 406 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 52%
Hero pool strength54% TNC Predator
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total56% TNC Predator
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:8
Fnatic 44%TNC Predator 56%
The model gave 56% on TNC Predator — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 36:05.
Game 2prediction correct26:31
Fnatic 44%TNC Predator 56%
The model gave 56% on TNC Predator — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 56:23.
Game 3prediction correct13:27
Fnatic 44%TNC Predator 56%
The model gave 56% on TNC Predator — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 43:29.
Game 4prediction correct32:13
Fnatic 44%TNC Predator 56%
The model gave 56% on TNC Predator — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 44:27.
Game 5prediction correct12:38
Fnatic 44%TNC Predator 56%
The model gave 56% on TNC Predator — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 34:10.
Model check result
Model favoriteTNC Predator · 56%
Series resultFnatic 3:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game5 of 5