OGA Dota PIT Invitational · BO3
result vs prediction
Fnaticloss 1:2series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fnatic
No games played over 6 months.
Tundra Esports
Tidehuntersignature
33 · 18 games
Abaddonsignature
Fata · 16 games
Batridersignature
Nine · 15 games
Clockwerk
Sneyking · 14 games
Lunasignature
Skiter · 12 games
Miranasignature
Sneyking · 12 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
Sneyking · 12 games
Puckoften banned
Nine · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
380 picks · 170 bans
Hoodwink
351 picks · 126 bans
Nyx Assassin
258 picks · 518 bans
Dragon Knight
255 picks · 346 bans
Lina
252 picks · 414 bans
Luna
248 picks · 331 bans
Winter Wyvern
247 picks · 244 bans
Terrorblade
235 picks · 497 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 67%
Hero pool strength62% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:21
Fnatic 32%Tundra Esports 68%
The model gave 68% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 29:09.
Game 2prediction correct9:36
Fnatic 32%Tundra Esports 68%
The model gave 68% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 30:43.
Game 3prediction correct33:16
Fnatic 32%Tundra Esports 68%
The model gave 68% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 38:43.
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 68%
Series resultTundra Esports 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3