PGL Arlington Major 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Fnaticloss 1:1series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Virtus.proloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fnatic
No games played over 6 months.
Virtus.pro
Dragon Knightsignature
DM · 14 games
Shadow Shaman
yamich · 14 games
Banesignature
Xakoda · 13 games
Beastmastersignature
DM · 12 games
Templar Assassinsignature
gpK~ · 12 games
Tinysignature
yamich · 12 games
Marcisignature
yamich · 11 games
Dazzlesignature
Xakoda · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
646 picks · 471 bans
Puck
451 picks · 968 bans
Dawnbreaker
378 picks · 460 bans
Snapfire
367 picks · 189 bans
Mars
341 picks · 562 bans
Marci
334 picks · 653 bans
Dragon Knight
316 picks · 430 bans
Ember Spirit
303 picks · 587 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 77%
Hero pool strength60% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:35
Fnatic 34%Virtus.pro 66%
The model gave 66% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 33:02.
Game 2prediction correct23:33
Fnatic 34%Virtus.pro 66%
The model gave 66% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 37:22.
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 66%
Accuracy by game2 of 2