IESF World Championship 2021. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Францияwin 2:1series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Словакияloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Франция
No games played over 6 months.
Словакия
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
356 picks · 176 bans
Hoodwink
309 picks · 114 bans
Lina
267 picks · 502 bans
Mars
262 picks · 422 bans
Pangolier
255 picks · 346 bans
Luna
245 picks · 333 bans
Nyx Assassin
229 picks · 488 bans
Shadow Demon
229 picks · 240 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Франция
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Франция
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed44:40
Франция 59%Словакия 41%
The model gave 59% on Франция — the game was taken by Словакия in 52:35.
Game 2prediction correct37:38
Франция 59%Словакия 41%
The model gave 59% on Франция — the game was taken by Франция in 48:44.
Game 3prediction correct28:22
Франция 59%Словакия 41%
The model gave 59% on Франция — the game was taken by Франция in 41:02.
Model check result
Model favoriteФранция · 59%
Series resultФранция 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3