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The International 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
FRIENDSloss 1:2
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Level UPwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

FRIENDS

No games played over 6 months.

Level UP

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
dEsire · 11 games
36%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Jeezy · 7 games
43%
Rubick
Rubick
Jeezy · 7 games
29%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Taiga · 6 games
50%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Bor@nija · 6 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Bor@nija · 6 games
33%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Stoic · 5 games
0%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Bor@nija · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
487 picks · 222 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
454 picks · 734 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
431 picks · 633 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
426 picks · 409 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
406 picks · 756 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
387 picks · 164 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
359 picks · 1039 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
356 picks · 745 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 35%
Hero pool strength54% FRIENDS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Level UP
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed37:32
FRIENDS 40%Level UP 60%
The model gave 60% on Level UP — the game was taken by FRIENDS in 38:23.
Game 2prediction correct38:14
FRIENDS 40%Level UP 60%
The model gave 60% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 25:53.
Game 3prediction correct26:43
FRIENDS 40%Level UP 60%
The model gave 60% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 32:18.
Model check result
Model favoriteLevel UP · 60%
Series resultLevel UP 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3