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EPL Masters II · BO3
result vs prediction
FTSloss 0:2
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 0:2
PuckChampwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

FTS

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Katsura · 3 games
33%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
elmo^^ · 3 games
33%
Clinkz
Clinkzoften banned
cutie · 2 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Katsura · 2 games
50%
Lich
Lich
JANTER · 2 games
50%
Mirana
Mirana
raregods · 2 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
elmo^^ · 1 game
0%
Doom
Doomoften banned
elmo^^ · 1 game
0%

PuckChamp

Techies
Techiessignature
Gothic- · 10 games
60%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Gothic- · 8 games
13%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Hyugadoto · 8 games
25%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Yuragi · 8 games
13%
Lina
Linaoften banned
xn丶e · 7 games
43%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Yuragi · 7 games
29%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
krol9ash · 6 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Hyugadoto · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
487 picks · 332 bans
49%
Bane
Bane
349 picks · 459 bans
55%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
340 picks · 533 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
322 picks · 498 bans
57%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
314 picks · 647 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
285 picks · 319 bans
49%
Windranger
Windranger
277 picks · 203 bans
47%
Snapfire
Snapfire
265 picks · 431 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 35%
Hero pool strength54% FTS
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total51% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:31
FTS 48%PuckChamp 52%
The model gave 52% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 1:02:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetKatsura
51% · 147 games46% · 18 games
Phantom LancerYuragi
Phantom Lancer
Lifestealer
Lifestealercutie
48% · 132 games48% · 257 games
Centaur Warrunnerkrol9ash
Centaur Warrunner
Night Stalker
Night Stalkerelmo^^
44% · 32 games54% · 65 games
Linaспортик
Lina
Windranger
Windrangerraregods
48% · 275 games52% · 107 games
MiranaGothic-
Mirana
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernmonodrama
55% · 93 games50% · 232 games
JakiroHyugadoto
Jakiro
Game 2prediction missed21:42
FTS 52%PuckChamp 48%
The model gave 52% on FTS — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 36:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
InvokerKatsura
49% · 186 games52% · 125 games
LifestealerYuragi
Lifestealer
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendcutie
50% · 266 games49% · 142 games
Earth Spiritспортик
Earth Spirit
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnerelmo^^
46% · 406 games50% · 262 games
Slardarkrol9ash
Slardar
Techies
Techiesraregods
51% · 178 games54% · 124 games
Winter WyvernHyugadoto
Winter Wyvern
Undying
Undyingmonodrama
52% · 177 games47% · 560 games
HoodwinkGothic-
Hoodwink
Game 3prediction correct7:1
FTS 49%PuckChamp 51%
The model gave 51% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 7:16.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 51%
Series resultPuckChamp 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3