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PGL Wallachia Season 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Fusionloss 1:2
series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Lavawin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Fusion

Hoodwink
Hoodwinkoften banned
Michael · 6 games
17%
Sven
Sven
Wits · 4 games
25%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Prada · 3 games
33%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Prada · 3 games
33%
Snapfire
Snapfireoften banned
Michael · 3 games
33%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Wits · 3 games
0%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Wits · 3 games
33%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
Prada · 3 games
0%

Lava

Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Genek · 6 games
17%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Lumière · 4 games
25%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Pamplona · 4 games
25%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
Gardick · 4 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Frank · 3 games
0%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
555k · 3 games
33%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Gardick · 3 games
33%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Frank · 3 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
410 picks · 348 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
408 picks · 446 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
385 picks · 826 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
377 picks · 871 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
358 picks · 739 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
340 picks · 508 bans
47%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
325 picks · 499 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
299 picks · 555 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 46%
Hero pool strength52% Lava
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total69% Lava
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:6
Fusion 41%Lava 59%
The model gave 59% on Lava — the game was taken by Fusion in 25:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinWits
45% · 141 game46% · 274 games
SvenDaaD-
Sven
Puck
PuckLeostyle
52% · 131 game48% · 164 games
BeastmasterAdrx
Beastmaster
Clockwerk
ClockwerkPrada
49% · 200 games49% · 253 games
Weaver555k
Weaver
Rubick
RubickMichael
54% · 340 games57% · 121 game
JakiroPamplona
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct22:25
Fusion 40%Lava 60%
The model gave 60% on Lava — the game was taken by Lava in 38:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightWits
50% · 104 games47% · 83 games
AlchemistDaaD-
Alchemist
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightLeostyle
50% · 230 games50% · 260 games
PangolierAdrx
Pangolier
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeMichael
54% · 229 games43% · 190 games
BatriderPamplona
Batrider
Disruptor
DisruptorPrada
54% · 132 games52% · 162 games
Clockwerk555k
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction correct19:32
Fusion 39%Lava 61%
The model gave 61% on Lava — the game was taken by Lava in 39:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinWits
47% · 108 games48% · 235 games
GyrocopterDaaD-
Gyrocopter
Tiny
TinyLeostyle
49% · 245 games54% · 74 games
Death ProphetAdrx
Death Prophet
Mirana
MiranaMichael
52% · 99 games51% · 64 games
MarciPamplona
Marci
Jakiro
JakiroPrada
55% · 79 games47% · 158 games
Clockwerk555k
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteLava · 69%
Series resultLava 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3