DreamLeague Season 25. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:0
LFLooking for Orgloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fusion
Batrideroften banned
Michael · 10 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Prada · 10 games
Ogre Magisignature
Prada · 9 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Frank · 8 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Mnz · 8 games
Phoenix
Prada · 8 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Frank · 7 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Frank · 6 games
Looking for Org
Marsoften banned
DarkMago · 24 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Mnz · 21 game
Tuskoften banned
Yadomi · 21 game
Clockwerkoften banned
Yadomi · 18 games
Enchantressoften banned
Yadomi · 18 games
Tinyoften banned
DarkMago · 18 games
Doomsignature
Sacred · 16 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Matthew · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
403 picks · 511 bans
Muerta
394 picks · 320 bans
Tusk
364 picks · 383 bans
Pangolier
349 picks · 567 bans
Lion
339 picks · 163 bans
Batrider
334 picks · 417 bans
Beastmaster
329 picks · 759 bans
Gyrocopter
310 picks · 458 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 39%
Hero pool strength53% Fusion
Head-to-head4 – 0
Model total53% Looking for Org
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Fusion 47%Looking for Org 53%
The model gave 53% on Looking for Org — the game was taken by Fusion.
Game 2prediction missed
Fusion 47%Looking for Org 53%
The model gave 53% on Looking for Org — the game was taken by Fusion.
Model check result
Model favoriteLooking for Org · 53%
Series resultFusion 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2