PGL Wallachia Season 3. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Fusionwin 2:0series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
LFLooking for Orgloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fusion
Batrideroften banned
Michael · 14 games
Ogre Magisignature
Prada · 14 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Prada · 12 games
Phoenixoften banned
Prada · 12 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Mnz · 10 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Frank · 9 games
Muertasignature
Michael · 9 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Frank · 8 games
Looking for Org
Beastmasteroften banned
Vitaly · 3 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Yadomi · 2 games
Doomoften banned
Matthew · 2 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
payk · 2 games
Lich
Yadomi · 2 games
Pangolieroften banned
PiPi · 2 games
Tinyoften banned
PiPi · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
Matthew · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
455 picks · 371 bans
Clockwerk
423 picks · 538 bans
Batrider
376 picks · 477 bans
Lion
371 picks · 194 bans
Gyrocopter
361 picks · 585 bans
Phoenix
360 picks · 397 bans
Pangolier
355 picks · 584 bans
Beastmaster
340 picks · 851 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 63%
Hero pool strength50% Fusion
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total66% Fusion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:26
Fusion 61%Looking for Org 39%
The model gave 61% on Fusion — the game was taken by Fusion in 56:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BristlebackFrank
Morphlingpayk
Dragon KnightMnz
TidehunterVitaly
PuckLeostyle
TinyPiPi
LionMichael
PhoenixYadomi
BatriderPrada
Shadow DemonMatthew
Game 2prediction correct33:15
Fusion 59%Looking for Org 41%
The model gave 59% on Fusion — the game was taken by Fusion in 35:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MuertaMnz
LinaPiPi
Shadow FiendLeostyle
Drow Rangerpayk
DawnbreakerFrank
DoomVitaly
BatriderPrada
EarthshakerMatthew
LionMichael
Dark WillowYadomi
Model check result
Model favoriteFusion · 66%
Series resultFusion 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2