DreamLeague Season 23 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
G2 Invictus Gamingwin 2:0series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:0
LGD Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
G2 Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
LGD Gaming
Lion
Pyw · 14 games
Pangolieroften banned
Setsu · 13 games
Pucksignature
Setsu · 13 games
Phoenixoften banned
y` · 12 games
Timbersawoften banned
niu · 12 games
Luna
shiro · 11 games
Naga Sirensignature
shiro · 11 games
Tinyoften banned
Pyw · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
404 picks · 652 bans
Lion
386 picks · 356 bans
Mars
385 picks · 619 bans
Techies
378 picks · 308 bans
Batrider
362 picks · 788 bans
Tiny
357 picks · 411 bans
Vengeful Spirit
353 picks · 355 bans
Hoodwink
336 picks · 203 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total55% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:28
G2 Invictus Gaming 45%LGD Gaming 55%
The model gave 55% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 39:17.
Game 2prediction correct24:6
G2 Invictus Gaming 45%LGD Gaming 55%
The model gave 55% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 22:59.
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 55%
Series resultG2 Invictus Gaming 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2