DreamLeague Season 22. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
G2 Invictus Gamingwin 2:0series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Asterloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
G2 Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Team Aster
Lionsignature
Kaka · 18 games
Snapfiresignature
SumaiL · 16 games
Rubicksignature
Kaka · 13 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
SumaiL · 11 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Monet · 11 games
Medusasignature
Monet · 10 games
Clockwerksignature
Fantasy · 9 games
Batridersignature
Kaka · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
256 picks · 425 bans
Phoenix
246 picks · 376 bans
Centaur Warrunner
243 picks · 336 bans
Tusk
215 picks · 202 bans
Muerta
204 picks · 285 bans
Nature's Prophet
199 picks · 501 bans
Dark Willow
196 picks · 98 bans
Pugna
179 picks · 322 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 47%
Hero pool strength58% Team Aster
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% G2 Invictus Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:11
G2 Invictus Gaming 68%Team Aster 32%
The model gave 68% on G2 Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Team Aster in 34:45.
Game 2prediction missed18:31
G2 Invictus Gaming 68%Team Aster 32%
The model gave 68% on G2 Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Team Aster in 43:48.
Model check result
Model favoriteG2 Invictus Gaming · 68%
Series resultG2 Invictus Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2