DreamLeague Season 22. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
G2 Invictus Gamingwin 2:0series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Titanloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
G2 Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Titan
Lion
mercy · 2 games
Windranger
flyfly · 2 games
Abaddonoften banned
ELeVeN · 1 game
Doomoften banned
ELeVeN · 1 game
Luna
flyfly · 1 game
Marsoften banned
ELeVeN · 1 game
Morphlingoften banned
flyfly · 1 game
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Undyne_ · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
262 picks · 431 bans
Phoenix
245 picks · 372 bans
Centaur Warrunner
241 picks · 330 bans
Muerta
212 picks · 298 bans
Tusk
211 picks · 203 bans
Dark Willow
204 picks · 100 bans
Nature's Prophet
190 picks · 491 bans
Pugna
179 picks · 325 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 56%
Hero pool strength51% G2 Invictus Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% G2 Invictus Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:25
G2 Invictus Gaming 79%Titan 21%
The model gave 79% on G2 Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Titan in 43:41.
Game 2prediction missed7:25
G2 Invictus Gaming 79%Titan 21%
The model gave 79% on G2 Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Titan in 26:07.
Model check result
Model favoriteG2 Invictus Gaming · 79%
Series resultG2 Invictus Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2