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PGL Wallachia Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:0
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:0
AVULUSloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Gaimin Gladiators

Muerta
Muertasignature
tOfu · 35 games
66%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Quinn · 24 games
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Watson · 17 games
35%
Mirana
Mirana
tOfu · 17 games
53%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Watson · 17 games
59%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Seleri · 16 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Ace · 16 games
44%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Ace · 15 games
47%

AVULUS

Lion
Lionsignature
Ekki · 43 games
65%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ekki · 37 games
54%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
SoNNeikO · 37 games
57%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Xibbe · 33 games
52%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Xibbe · 28 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Smiling Knight · 27 games
56%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Stormstormer · 27 games
48%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Smiling Knight · 26 games
73%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
515 picks · 732 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
487 picks · 783 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
483 picks · 473 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
446 picks · 368 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
432 picks · 524 bans
50%
Magnus
Magnus
424 picks · 1041 bans
57%
Bristleback
Bristleback
412 picks · 930 bans
59%
Pangolier
Pangolier
393 picks · 535 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 47%
Hero pool strength52% AVULUS
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total63% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:7
Gaimin Gladiators 57%AVULUS 43%
The model gave 57% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 25:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeWatson
45% · 113 games51% · 103 games
UrsaSmiling Knight
Ursa
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritQuinn
58% · 185 games54% · 85 games
DawnbreakerXibbe
Dawnbreaker
Abaddon
AbaddonAce
47% · 40 games45% · 55 games
SlardarStormstormer
Slardar
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LighttOfu
52% · 53 games49% · 225 games
BatriderEkki
Batrider
Jakiro
JakiroMalady
47% · 94 games53% · 17 games
SilencerSoNNeikO
Silencer
Game 2prediction correct31:9
Gaimin Gladiators 56%AVULUS 44%
The model gave 56% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 24:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyWatson
51% · 329 games47% · 154 games
Phantom AssassinSmiling Knight
Phantom Assassin
Puck
PuckQuinn
47% · 207 games49% · 280 games
BeastmasterXibbe
Beastmaster
Tinker
TinkerMalady
60% · 22 games48% · 77 games
SlardarStormstormer
Slardar
Abaddon
AbaddonAce
54% · 57 games48% · 278 games
Shadow DemonEkki
Shadow Demon
Muerta
MuertatOfu
55% · 189 games41% · 15 games
SilencerSoNNeikO
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 63%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2