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PGL Wallachia Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:0
series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 2:0
AVULUSloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Gaimin Gladiators

Muerta
Muertasignature
tOfu · 33 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Quinn · 26 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Watson · 24 games
54%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Malady · 23 games
48%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Ace · 19 games
42%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Ace · 18 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Ace · 16 games
69%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Ace · 16 games
44%

AVULUS

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Stormstormer · 51 game
49%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
dEsire · 22 games
64%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Fly · 21 game
52%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Xibbe · 20 games
75%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ekki · 19 games
42%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Xibbe · 19 games
37%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Xibbe · 18 games
44%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mo13ei · 18 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
565 picks · 637 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
490 picks · 248 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
464 picks · 424 bans
49%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
400 picks · 854 bans
47%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
383 picks · 436 bans
57%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
378 picks · 564 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
374 picks · 327 bans
49%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
356 picks · 834 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 36%
Hero pool strength53% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total82% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:21
Gaimin Gladiators 71%AVULUS 29%
The model gave 71% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 40:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeWatson
51% · 211 games52% · 159 games
SvenSmiling Knight
Sven
Kunkka
KunkkaAce
44% · 118 games51% · 132 games
DawnbreakerXibbe
Dawnbreaker
Puck
PucktOfu
53% · 194 games54% · 33 games
ViperMo13ei
Viper
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritQuinn
47% · 244 games50% · 347 games
JakiroFly
Jakiro
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetMalady
49% · 146 games49% · 242 games
Dark WillowdEsire
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction correct27:29
Gaimin Gladiators 70%AVULUS 30%
The model gave 70% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 43:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaQuinn
54% · 158 games45% · 198 games
MedusaSmiling Knight
Medusa
Doom
DoomWatson
54% · 311 games47% · 479 games
TinyMo13ei
Tiny
Dark Seer
Dark SeerAce
55% · 253 games45% · 167 games
DawnbreakerXibbe
Dawnbreaker
Batrider
BatridertOfu
54% · 324 games43% · 312 games
JakiroFly
Jakiro
Warlock
WarlockMalady
56% · 221 game46% · 111 games
MarcidEsire
Marci
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 82%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2