ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023 · BO5
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 2:3series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:3
Azure Raywin 3:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Gaimin Gladiators
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 29 games
Undyingoften banned
Seleri · 23 games
Broodmothersignature
Ace · 21 game
Dark Seersignature
Ace · 20 games
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 20 games
Rubicksignature
tOfu · 20 games
Morphlingoften banned
dyrachyo · 19 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
dyrachyo · 19 games
Azure Ray
Clockwerksignature
天命 · 16 games
Batridersignature
天命 · 13 games
Pugnaoften banned
天命 · 12 games
Brewmastersignature
Chalice · 11 games
Doomsignature
fy · 9 games
Naga Sirensignature
lou · 9 games
Pangoliersignature
Somnus · 9 games
Enchantress
fy · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
271 picks · 438 bans
Muerta
235 picks · 327 bans
Dark Willow
234 picks · 114 bans
Phoenix
221 picks · 328 bans
Treant Protector
215 picks · 432 bans
Tusk
205 picks · 178 bans
Kunkka
203 picks · 542 bans
Centaur Warrunner
197 picks · 269 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 52%
Hero pool strength51% Azure Ray
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total70% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:5
Gaimin Gladiators 62%Azure Ray 38%
The model gave 62% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 28:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemistdyrachyo
Lifestealerlou
BroodmotherAce
Primal BeastXxs
PangolierQuinn
Queen of PainXm
SilencertOfu
RubickXinQ
Crystal MaidenSeleri
Phoenix天命
Game 2prediction correct38:12
Gaimin Gladiators 62%Azure Ray 38%
The model gave 62% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 27:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slarkdyrachyo
Abaddonlou
PangolierQuinn
DoomXxs
Primal BeastAce
SlardarXm
Crystal MaidenSeleri
Vengeful Spirit天命
GrimstroketOfu
WindrangerXinQ
Game 3prediction missed5:30
Gaimin Gladiators 64%Azure Ray 36%
The model gave 64% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 29:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SlardarQuinn
Storm SpiritXm
UnderlordAce
Faceless Voidlou
Weaverdyrachyo
Centaur WarrunnerXxs
GyrocoptertOfu
Phoenix天命
Crystal MaidenSeleri
Shadow DemonXinQ
Game 4prediction missed32:29
Gaimin Gladiators 60%Azure Ray 40%
The model gave 60% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 39:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PangolierQuinn
Lunalou
TimbersawAce
PuckXm
Slarkdyrachyo
Primal BeastXxs
Shadow DemontOfu
Nyx AssassinXinQ
Crystal MaidenSeleri
Batrider天命
Game 5prediction missed5:27
Gaimin Gladiators 61%Azure Ray 39%
The model gave 61% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 37:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BeastmasterAce
Naga Sirenlou
Faceless Voiddyrachyo
Outworld DestroyerXm
PangolierQuinn
Centaur WarrunnerXxs
GyrocopterSeleri
Shadow DemonXinQ
GrimstroketOfu
Phoenix天命
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 70%
Series resultAzure Ray 2:3
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 5