PGL Wallachia Season 5 · BO5
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 1:3series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:3
BETBOOM TEAMwin 3:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Gaimin Gladiators
Muertasignature
tOfu · 33 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Watson · 27 games
Pangolieroften banned
Quinn · 26 games
Jakiro
Malady · 25 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Ace · 19 games
Doomoften banned
Ace · 18 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Ace · 18 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Quinn · 17 games
BETBOOM TEAM
Beastmastersignature
MieRo · 30 games
Ringmastersignature
Save- · 30 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Pure~ · 28 games
Muerta
Save- · 27 games
Tinyoften banned
gpK~ · 27 games
Kunkkasignature
gpK~ · 25 games
Shadow Shamansignature
Save- · 23 games
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Pure~ · 22 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
550 picks · 616 bans
Ringmaster
492 picks · 248 bans
Jakiro
442 picks · 393 bans
Shadow Shaman
429 picks · 471 bans
Terrorblade
410 picks · 852 bans
Tusk
389 picks · 361 bans
Storm Spirit
386 picks · 563 bans
Pangolier
367 picks · 538 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 52%
Hero pool strength52% BETBOOM TEAM
Head-to-head0 – 4
Model total54% BETBOOM TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:30
Gaimin Gladiators 47%BETBOOM TEAM 53%
The model gave 53% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 39:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AbaddonWatson
MuertaPure~
AxeAce
Queen of PaingpK~
LinaQuinn
LycanMieRo
UndyingMalady
RubickSave-
Shadow ShamantOfu
BaneKataomi
Game 2prediction correct10:41
Gaimin Gladiators 47%BETBOOM TEAM 53%
The model gave 53% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 30:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingWatson
Templar AssassinPure~
DawnbreakerAce
PuckgpK~
Ember SpiritQuinn
KunkkaMieRo
JakiroMalady
Shadow ShamanSave-
VenomancertOfu
WarlockKataomi
Game 3prediction missed32:20
Gaimin Gladiators 47%BETBOOM TEAM 53%
The model gave 53% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 53:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinWatson
BeastmasterMieRo
LeshracQuinn
LifestealerPure~
AbaddonAce
BatridergpK~
TinkerMalady
Shadow ShamanSave-
Dark WillowtOfu
WarlockKataomi
Game 4prediction correct25:60
Gaimin Gladiators 48%BETBOOM TEAM 52%
The model gave 52% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 1:05:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckQuinn
LifestealerPure~
DoomWatson
Monkey KinggpK~
TinkerMalady
AxeMieRo
Vengeful SpiritAce
BatriderSave-
Dark WillowtOfu
SilencerKataomi
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM TEAM · 54%
Series resultBETBOOM TEAM 1:3
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 4