ESL One Malaysia 2022. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 1:2series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Entitywin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Gaimin Gladiators
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 28 games
Iosignature
Seleri · 21 game
Bane
tOfu · 19 games
Storm Spiritsignature
BOOM · 19 games
Weaveroften banned
tOfu · 19 games
Ember Spiritsignature
BOOM · 18 games
Marssignature
Ace · 18 games
Tinysignature
BOOM · 18 games
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
626 picks · 470 bans
Puck
438 picks · 941 bans
Snapfire
363 picks · 189 bans
Dawnbreaker
356 picks · 416 bans
Mars
356 picks · 587 bans
Dragon Knight
336 picks · 457 bans
Bane
315 picks · 196 bans
Marci
306 picks · 617 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 61%
Hero pool strength58% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total52% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:6
Gaimin Gladiators 52%Entity 48%
The model gave 52% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 30:53.
Game 2prediction missed30:52
Gaimin Gladiators 52%Entity 48%
The model gave 52% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Entity in 53:13.
Game 3prediction missed17:40
Gaimin Gladiators 52%Entity 48%
The model gave 52% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Entity in 37:29.
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 52%
Series resultEntity 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3