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FISSURE Universe: Episode 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:0
series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:0
M80loss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Gaimin Gladiators

Muerta
Muertasignature
tOfu · 36 games
69%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Quinn · 22 games
55%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Watson · 17 games
59%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Seleri · 16 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Ace · 16 games
44%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Ace · 15 games
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Watson · 15 games
47%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Quinn · 15 games
60%

M80

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
MoOz · 28 games
57%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Elmisho · 24 games
58%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
MoOz · 22 games
68%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Elmisho · 18 games
56%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
K1 · 18 games
61%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
DarkMago · 18 games
78%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
MoOz · 17 games
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
K1 · 15 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
496 picks · 691 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
451 picks · 711 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
430 picks · 422 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
419 picks · 326 bans
53%
Magnus
Magnus
385 picks · 961 bans
57%
Batrider
Batrider
381 picks · 435 bans
48%
Bristleback
Bristleback
381 picks · 886 bans
59%
Pangolier
Pangolier
367 picks · 510 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 59%
Hero pool strength50% M80
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:20
Gaimin Gladiators 67%M80 33%
The model gave 67% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 28:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Huskar
HuskarQuinn
59% · 62 games51% · 102 games
SniperDarkMago
Sniper
Monkey King
Monkey KingWatson
52% · 290 games46% · 181 game
Dragon KnightK1
Dragon Knight
Underlord
UnderlordAce
53% · 125 games53% · 111 games
MarsILICH-
Mars
Tinker
TinkerMalady
49% · 53 games43% · 135 games
PhoenixMoOz
Phoenix
Mirana
MiranatOfu
51% · 181 game45% · 182 games
BatriderElmisho
Batrider
Game 2prediction correct34:13
Gaimin Gladiators 66%M80 34%
The model gave 66% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 23:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritQuinn
49% · 227 games40% · 151 game
TerrorbladeK1
Terrorblade
Tidehunter
TidehunterAce
51% · 94 games49% · 129 games
Dark SeerILICH-
Dark Seer
Tiny
TinyWatson
48% · 382 games53% · 110 games
EarthshakerDarkMago
Earthshaker
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LighttOfu
49% · 44 games56% · 159 games
WeaverElmisho
Weaver
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionMalady
47% · 13 games55% · 211 games
MuertaMoOz
Muerta
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 80%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2