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BetBoom Xmas Show · BO3
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:1
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nemiga Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Gaimin Gladiators

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Ace · 20 games
60%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Seleri · 17 games
53%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Seleri · 16 games
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
tOfu · 16 games
38%
Marci
Marcisignature
tOfu · 14 games
64%
Tiny
Tinysignature
BOOM · 13 games
62%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
BOOM · 12 games
83%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
dyrachyo · 9 games
56%

Nemiga Gaming

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 8 games
75%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Hellscream · 8 games
50%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Hellscream · 8 games
75%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Malr1ne · 8 games
88%
Lifestealer
Lifestealersignature
Kiritych · 7 games
71%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Hellscream · 7 games
86%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Malr1ne · 7 games
57%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Malr1ne · 7 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
365 picks · 350 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
339 picks · 325 bans
60%
Pangolier
Pangolier
232 picks · 567 bans
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
225 picks · 122 bans
45%
Marci
Marci
220 picks · 435 bans
54%
Mirana
Mirana
220 picks · 223 bans
54%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
217 picks · 147 bans
53%
Undying
Undying
217 picks · 385 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 64%
Hero pool strength58% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total51% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:49
Gaimin Gladiators 49%Nemiga Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 55:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracQuinn
51% · 121 game40% · 165 games
TerrorbladeKiritych
Terrorblade
Lifestealer
LifestealerShad
60% · 71 game51% · 50 games
Centaur WarrunnerCorrupted
Centaur Warrunner
Underlord
UnderlordAce
44% · 40 games44% · 146 games
ZeusHellscream
Zeus
Tiny
TinytOfu
47% · 469 games55% · 217 games
TuskMalr1ne
Tusk
Io
IoSeleri
53% · 158 games52% · 281 game
Baneso bad
Bane
Game 2prediction missed20:7
Gaimin Gladiators 48%Nemiga Gaming 52%
The model gave 52% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 26:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracQuinn
50% · 100 games55% · 85 games
TimbersawMalr1ne
Timbersaw
Dark Seer
Dark SeerAce
45% · 23 games52% · 36 games
LifestealerKiritych
Lifestealer
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidShad
48% · 69 games50% · 90 games
BeastmasterCorrupted
Beastmaster
Riki
RikitOfu
40% · 7 games53% · 30 games
Silencerso bad
Silencer
Io
IoSeleri
51% · 99 games47% · 57 games
Dark WillowHellscream
Dark Willow
Game 3prediction missed22:10
Gaimin Gladiators 47%Nemiga Gaming 53%
The model gave 53% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 36:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidShad
50% · 92 games57% · 95 games
MedusaKiritych
Medusa
Batrider
BatriderQuinn
47% · 99 games50% · 108 games
TidehunterCorrupted
Tidehunter
Magnus
MagnusAce
45% · 23 games52% · 197 games
TuskMalr1ne
Tusk
Snapfire
SnapfiretOfu
49% · 238 games55% · 82 games
PhoenixHellscream
Phoenix
Rubick
RubickSeleri
48% · 153 games46% · 123 games
Enchantressso bad
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 51%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 3