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1win Series Dota 2 Fall · BO3
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:1
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nigma Galaxyloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Gaimin Gladiators

Underlord
Underlordsignature
Ace · 23 games
61%
Broodmother
Broodmothersignature
Ace · 20 games
65%
Chen
Chensignature
Seleri · 19 games
68%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Quinn · 17 games
76%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Seleri · 16 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Seleri · 16 games
44%
Muerta
Muertasignature
tOfu · 15 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Quinn · 14 games
57%

Nigma Galaxy

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
GH · 26 games
77%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
OmaR · 20 games
60%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
GH · 18 games
61%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
No!ob · 18 games
56%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
SumaiL · 18 games
67%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Miracle- · 14 games
57%
Sniper
Snipersignature
SumaiL · 14 games
86%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Fbz · 13 games
85%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
486 picks · 664 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
418 picks · 469 bans
53%
Luna
Luna
357 picks · 456 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
357 picks · 530 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
332 picks · 177 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
322 picks · 406 bans
51%
Enchantress
Enchantress
319 picks · 653 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
299 picks · 312 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 52%
Hero pool strength53% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total70% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:14
Gaimin Gladiators 58%Nigma Galaxy 42%
The model gave 58% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 36:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingWatson
46% · 262 games57% · 228 games
AlchemistMiracle-
Alchemist
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerAce
43% · 72 games52% · 96 games
Queen of PainSumaiL
Queen of Pain
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritQuinn
50% · 191 game58% · 196 games
Sand KingNo!ob
Sand King
Tusk
TusktOfu
42% · 268 games53% · 374 games
BatriderOmaR
Batrider
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonSeleri
45% · 262 games53% · 161 game
PugnaGH
Pugna
Game 2prediction missed12:25
Gaimin Gladiators 61%Nigma Galaxy 39%
The model gave 61% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 32:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaWatson
48% · 187 games43% · 199 games
MorphlingMiracle-
Morphling
Primal Beast
Primal BeastQuinn
47% · 419 games47% · 164 games
RazorSumaiL
Razor
Doom
DoomAce
51% · 332 games48% · 394 games
PangolierNo!ob
Pangolier
Muerta
MuertatOfu
47% · 188 games52% · 266 games
ClockwerkGH
Clockwerk
Chen
ChenSeleri
60% · 173 games56% · 276 games
BatriderOmaR
Batrider
Game 3prediction correct33:25
Gaimin Gladiators 60%Nigma Galaxy 40%
The model gave 60% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 32:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendWatson
44% · 156 games50% · 224 games
GyrocopterMiracle-
Gyrocopter
Tidehunter
TidehunterAce
48% · 69 games59% · 196 games
Storm SpiritSumaiL
Storm Spirit
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritQuinn
48% · 95 games55% · 101 game
MagnusNo!ob
Magnus
Enchantress
EnchantressSeleri
45% · 315 games54% · 117 games
Nyx AssassinOmaR
Nyx Assassin
Clockwerk
ClockwerktOfu
54% · 270 games43% · 267 games
BatriderGH
Batrider
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 70%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3