DreamLeague Season 19 · BO3
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:1series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:1
OGloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Gaimin Gladiators
Rubicksignature
tOfu · 33 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Ace · 28 games
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 22 games
Undyingsignature
Seleri · 22 games
Leshracsignature
Quinn · 20 games
Disruptorsignature
tOfu · 18 games
Iosignature
Seleri · 18 games
Treant Protectorsignature
Seleri · 18 games
OG
Rubick
Taiga · 28 games
Invokersignature
bzm · 15 games
Disruptor
Chuvash · 12 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Taiga · 12 games
Tiny
Taiga · 11 games
Beastmasteroften banned
DM · 10 games
Dark Willowsignature
Taiga · 10 games
Death Prophetoften banned
DM · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
1003 picks · 694 bans
Tiny
652 picks · 479 bans
Nature's Prophet
600 picks · 953 bans
Tusk
551 picks · 433 bans
Snapfire
534 picks · 362 bans
Disruptor
527 picks · 388 bans
Death Prophet
517 picks · 1191 bans
Clockwerk
504 picks · 377 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 43%
Hero pool strength58% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head1 – 5
Model total73% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:8
Gaimin Gladiators 66%OG 34%
The model gave 66% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 34:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphlingdyrachyo
Tinkerbzm
LeshracQuinn
SlarkYuragi
BeastmasterAce
TidehunterDM
MiranatOfu
EnchantressChuvash
UndyingSeleri
SnapfireTaiga
Game 2prediction missed20:33
Gaimin Gladiators 64%OG 36%
The model gave 64% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by OG in 41:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fienddyrachyo
UrsaYuragi
PangolierQuinn
Dragon Knightbzm
UnderlordAce
Dark SeerDM
RubicktOfu
PhoenixChuvash
DisruptorSeleri
TinyTaiga
Game 3prediction correct27:19
Gaimin Gladiators 62%OG 38%
The model gave 62% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 36:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightQuinn
Phantom AssassinYuragi
Lifestealerdyrachyo
Primal Beastbzm
UnderlordAce
VenomancerDM
EnchantressSeleri
DisruptorChuvash
MiranatOfu
Dark WillowTaiga
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 73%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3