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The Bali Major 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:1
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:1
PSG Questloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Gaimin Gladiators

Rubick
Rubicksignature
tOfu · 56 games
73%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Seleri · 42 games
71%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 38 games
68%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 34 games
65%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Ace · 33 games
70%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
tOfu · 33 games
76%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Quinn · 32 games
66%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Quinn · 32 games
72%

PSG Quest

Rubick
Rubicksignature
OmaR · 30 games
63%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Kaori · 27 games
63%
Techies
Techiessignature
OmaR · 22 games
73%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Kaori · 20 games
85%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Kaori · 20 games
60%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Kaori · 19 games
58%
Snapfire
Snapfire
No!ob · 19 games
58%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
TA2000 · 18 games
61%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
669 picks · 704 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
622 picks · 434 bans
47%
Doom
Doom
567 picks · 1120 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
481 picks · 994 bans
49%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
470 picks · 1183 bans
56%
Disruptor
Disruptor
441 picks · 399 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
441 picks · 711 bans
48%
Batrider
Batrider
423 picks · 1130 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 67%
Hero pool strength54% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total78% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:23
Gaimin Gladiators 65%PSG Quest 35%
The model gave 65% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 39:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga Sirendyrachyo
53% · 180 games44% · 236 games
BroodmotherATF
Broodmother
Doom
DoomAce
49% · 193 games52% · 116 games
LinaNo!ob
Lina
Timbersaw
TimbersawQuinn
54% · 151 game49% · 178 games
Faceless VoidTA2000
Faceless Void
Batrider
BatriderSeleri
51% · 276 games50% · 129 games
PhoenixKaori
Phoenix
Disruptor
DisruptortOfu
50% · 201 game48% · 342 games
TechiesOmaR
Techies
Game 2prediction missed10:19
Gaimin Gladiators 66%PSG Quest 34%
The model gave 66% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 28:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomAce
48% · 354 games50% · 100 games
JuggernautTA2000
Juggernaut
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekerdyrachyo
50% · 207 games52% · 380 games
TinyNo!ob
Tiny
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainQuinn
54% · 155 games46% · 239 games
TimbersawATF
Timbersaw
Pugna
PugnatOfu
56% · 163 games48% · 530 games
RubickOmaR
Rubick
Snapfire
SnapfireSeleri
44% · 490 games53% · 120 games
Shadow DemonKaori
Shadow Demon
Game 3prediction correct23:11
Gaimin Gladiators 65%PSG Quest 35%
The model gave 65% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 23:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinQuinn
54% · 225 games50% · 333 games
MorphlingTA2000
Morphling
Terrorblade
Terrorbladedyrachyo
52% · 284 games49% · 451 game
PangolierNo!ob
Pangolier
Broodmother
BroodmotherAce
52% · 201 game48% · 269 games
Monkey KingATF
Monkey King
Techies
TechiestOfu
52% · 351 game49% · 277 games
Skywrath MageOmaR
Skywrath Mage
Rubick
RubickSeleri
47% · 691 game50% · 422 games
UndyingKaori
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 78%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3