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DreamLeague Season 19 · BO3
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:0
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Shopify Rebellionloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Gaimin Gladiators

Rubick
Rubicksignature
tOfu · 34 games
68%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Ace · 28 games
61%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Quinn · 23 games
74%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 23 games
65%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Seleri · 23 games
87%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
tOfu · 22 games
73%
Io
Iosignature
Seleri · 19 games
74%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Seleri · 18 games
72%

Shopify Rebellion

Undying
Undyingsignature
Fly · 26 games
77%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
SabeRLight- · 24 games
75%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Cr1t- · 19 games
74%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Cr1t- · 18 games
61%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Cr1t- · 14 games
79%
Lycan
Lycansignature
SabeRLight- · 13 games
85%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Fly · 13 games
69%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Fly · 13 games
62%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
995 picks · 693 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
645 picks · 478 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
593 picks · 945 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
543 picks · 403 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
539 picks · 422 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
530 picks · 368 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
515 picks · 1203 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
504 picks · 383 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 60%
Hero pool strength51% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total62% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:5
Gaimin Gladiators 56%Shopify Rebellion 44%
The model gave 56% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 32:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursadyrachyo
46% · 57 games54% · 208 games
MorphlingArteezy
Morphling
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightQuinn
43% · 89 games50% · 55 games
UnderlordSabeRLight-
Underlord
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerAce
49% · 47 games59% · 77 games
ChenFly
Chen
Enchantress
EnchantressSeleri
42% · 110 games51% · 149 games
RikiCr1t-
Riki
Rubick
RubicktOfu
53% · 186 games
Game 2prediction correct25:13
Gaimin Gladiators 57%Shopify Rebellion 43%
The model gave 57% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 30:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracQuinn
57% · 92 games51% · 41 game
Anti-MageArteezy
Anti-Mage
Bristleback
Bristlebackdyrachyo
53% · 58 games50% · 193 games
EnigmaSabeRLight-
Enigma
Lone Druid
Lone DruidAce
57% · 21 game47% · 84 games
ChenFly
Chen
Clockwerk
ClockwerktOfu
40% · 145 games50% · 55 games
Earth SpiritCr1t-
Earth Spirit
Io
IoSeleri
55% · 57 games
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 62%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2