ESL One Stockholm Dota Major 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:0series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
T1loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Gaimin Gladiators
Banesignature
tOfu · 22 games
Iosignature
Seleri · 19 games
Tidehuntersignature
Ace · 19 games
Weaversignature
tOfu · 19 games
Marssignature
Ace · 18 games
Disruptorsignature
tOfu · 17 games
Treant Protectorsignature
Seleri · 15 games
Ember Spiritsignature
BOOM · 14 games
T1
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
470 picks · 633 bans
Bane
454 picks · 284 bans
Tiny
441 picks · 492 bans
Sand King
399 picks · 530 bans
Death Prophet
360 picks · 790 bans
Storm Spirit
346 picks · 546 bans
Ember Spirit
342 picks · 553 bans
Pangolier
333 picks · 509 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 52%
Hero pool strength61% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:11
Gaimin Gladiators 58%T1 42%
The model gave 58% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 33:28.
Game 2prediction correct28:6
Gaimin Gladiators 58%T1 42%
The model gave 58% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 21:35.
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 58%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2