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DreamLeague Season 22 · BO2
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 0:2
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Falconswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Gaimin Gladiators

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 27 games
70%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
dyrachyo · 18 games
56%
Muerta
Muertasignature
tOfu · 18 games
61%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
dyrachyo · 14 games
86%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
tOfu · 13 games
69%
Sven
Sven
dyrachyo · 13 games
54%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Seleri · 12 games
67%
Lone Druid
Lone Druidsignature
Ace · 12 games
75%

Team Falcons

Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 27 games
85%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Malr1ne · 19 games
58%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 19 games
74%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Cr1t- · 19 games
84%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Sneyking · 17 games
82%
Luna
Lunasignature
Skiter · 17 games
76%
Puck
Pucksignature
Malr1ne · 17 games
82%
Chen
Chensignature
Sneyking · 16 games
88%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
367 picks · 321 bans
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
330 picks · 478 bans
59%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
326 picks · 315 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
272 picks · 389 bans
52%
Techies
Techies
261 picks · 176 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
259 picks · 353 bans
56%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
257 picks · 143 bans
51%
Magnus
Magnus
251 picks · 473 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 67%
Hero pool strength57% Team Falcons
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total59% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:30
Gaimin Gladiators 44%Team Falcons 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 28:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
Alchemistdyrachyo
49% · 150 games51% · 125 games
Dragon KnightMalr1ne
Dragon Knight
Underlord
UnderlordAce
52% · 153 games51% · 270 games
DoomATF
Doom
Zeus
ZeusQuinn
41% · 53 games49% · 81 game
UrsaSkiter
Ursa
Lion
LiontOfu
46% · 173 games49% · 176 games
BatriderCr1t-
Batrider
Undying
UndyingSeleri
48% · 271 game61% · 148 games
MiranaSneyking
Mirana
Game 2prediction correct16:47
Gaimin Gladiators 45%Team Falcons 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 41:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
Alchemistdyrachyo
51% · 162 games51% · 296 games
DoomATF
Doom
Broodmother
BroodmotherAce
43% · 119 games54% · 120 games
Dragon KnightSkiter
Dragon Knight
Kunkka
KunkkaQuinn
53% · 93 games48% · 179 games
Primal BeastMalr1ne
Primal Beast
Techies
TechiestOfu
49% · 372 games50% · 264 games
BatriderCr1t-
Batrider
Undying
UndyingSeleri
44% · 295 games58% · 182 games
MiranaSneyking
Mirana
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 59%
Series resultTeam Falcons 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2