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DreamLeague Season 22 · BO3
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 0:2
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Falconswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Gaimin Gladiators

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 27 games
70%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
dyrachyo · 20 games
55%
Muerta
Muertasignature
tOfu · 18 games
61%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
dyrachyo · 17 games
71%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Seleri · 14 games
64%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
tOfu · 13 games
69%
Sven
Sven
dyrachyo · 13 games
54%
Lone Druid
Lone Druidsignature
Ace · 12 games
75%

Team Falcons

Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 30 games
83%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Malr1ne · 21 game
62%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 19 games
74%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Cr1t- · 19 games
84%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Sneyking · 18 games
83%
Luna
Lunasignature
Skiter · 18 games
78%
Puck
Pucksignature
Malr1ne · 18 games
78%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Cr1t- · 17 games
59%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
374 picks · 335 bans
53%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
324 picks · 317 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
321 picks · 466 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
277 picks · 386 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
272 picks · 399 bans
51%
Techies
Techies
271 picks · 188 bans
55%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
267 picks · 145 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
258 picks · 190 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 64%
Hero pool strength58% Team Falcons
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total63% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct5:33
Gaimin Gladiators 44%Team Falcons 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 35:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Huskar
HuskarQuinn
54% · 18 games56% · 75 games
GyrocopterSkiter
Gyrocopter
Slark
Slarkdyrachyo
47% · 117 games52% · 132 games
PuckMalr1ne
Puck
Timbersaw
TimbersawAce
49% · 155 games53% · 152 games
BloodseekerATF
Bloodseeker
Mirana
MiranaSeleri
53% · 169 games47% · 135 games
Crystal MaidenSneyking
Crystal Maiden
Doom
DoomtOfu
49% · 222 games44% · 187 games
TinyCr1t-
Tiny
Game 2prediction correct32:33
Gaimin Gladiators 41%Team Falcons 59%
The model gave 59% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 48:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
Svendyrachyo
48% · 54 games58% · 47 games
WeaverSkiter
Weaver
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainQuinn
47% · 57 games41% · 10 games
HuskarMalr1ne
Huskar
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerAce
54% · 42 games54% · 139 games
MarsATF
Mars
Batrider
BatridertOfu
52% · 142 games57% · 100 games
Crystal MaidenSneyking
Crystal Maiden
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritSeleri
43% · 113 games42% · 112 games
TuskCr1t-
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 63%
Series resultTeam Falcons 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2