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PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 1:2
series probability
21%79%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Falconswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Gaimin Gladiators

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Seleri · 25 games
60%
Batrider
Batridersignature
tOfu · 18 games
78%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
dyrachyo · 17 games
59%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
tOfu · 17 games
53%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Ace · 16 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 16 games
75%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Seleri · 13 games
54%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Seleri · 13 games
46%

Team Falcons

Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 47 games
81%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Sneyking · 39 games
77%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 39 games
64%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Malr1ne · 37 games
73%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 34 games
76%
Doom
Doomsignature
ATF · 33 games
79%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Cr1t- · 33 games
82%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Skiter · 30 games
83%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
484 picks · 214 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
444 picks · 623 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
414 picks · 734 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
394 picks · 158 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
393 picks · 545 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
382 picks · 326 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
364 picks · 737 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
337 picks · 548 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 65%
Hero pool strength60% Team Falcons
Head-to-head0 – 4
Model total79% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed42:14
Gaimin Gladiators 33%Team Falcons 67%
The model gave 67% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 33:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperQuinn
58% · 49 games47% · 134 games
SvenSkiter
Sven
Brewmaster
BrewmasterAce
56% · 138 games49% · 125 games
RazorATF
Razor
Weaver
Weaverdyrachyo
58% · 85 games43% · 132 games
Dragon KnightNine
Dragon Knight
Clockwerk
ClockwerkSeleri
51% · 133 games45% · 58 games
Earth SpiritCr1t-
Earth Spirit
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidentOfu
51% · 216 games43% · 172 games
EnchantressSneyking
Enchantress
Game 2prediction correct17:55
Gaimin Gladiators 33%Team Falcons 67%
The model gave 67% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 41:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperQuinn
50% · 51 game50% · 154 games
TimbersawATF
Timbersaw
Clinkz
Clinkzdyrachyo
55% · 83 games48% · 117 games
Dragon KnightSkiter
Dragon Knight
Pudge
PudgeAce
60% · 60 games48% · 73 games
ZeusNine
Zeus
Clockwerk
ClockwerkSeleri
56% · 166 games37% · 71 game
Dark WillowCr1t-
Dark Willow
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidentOfu
49% · 243 games46% · 188 games
EnchantressSneyking
Enchantress
Game 3prediction correct22:28
Gaimin Gladiators 31%Team Falcons 69%
The model gave 69% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 46:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless Voiddyrachyo
50% · 206 games50% · 198 games
GyrocopterSkiter
Gyrocopter
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinQuinn
49% · 177 games45% · 146 games
RazorATF
Razor
Kunkka
KunkkaAce
52% · 189 games53% · 375 games
PangolierNine
Pangolier
Enchantress
EnchantressSeleri
47% · 214 games54% · 43 games
VenomancerSneyking
Venomancer
Dark Willow
Dark WillowtOfu
46% · 135 games55% · 159 games
ClockwerkCr1t-
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 79%
Series resultTeam Falcons 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3