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DreamLeague Season 23 · BO5
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 0:3
series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 0:3
Team Falconswin 3:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Gaimin Gladiators

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Seleri · 29 games
59%
Batrider
Batridersignature
tOfu · 21 game
81%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
tOfu · 18 games
56%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
dyrachyo · 17 games
59%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Quinn · 17 games
76%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 17 games
76%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Ace · 16 games
50%
Sniper
Sniperoften banned
Quinn · 16 games
56%

Team Falcons

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 49 games
67%
Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 49 games
78%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Sneyking · 45 games
76%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Malr1ne · 45 games
73%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 39 games
74%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Cr1t- · 36 games
81%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 36 games
61%
Doom
Doomsignature
ATF · 33 games
79%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
472 picks · 225 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
420 picks · 632 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
414 picks · 717 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
405 picks · 361 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
400 picks · 576 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
376 picks · 160 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
365 picks · 782 bans
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
335 picks · 945 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 66%
Hero pool strength56% Team Falcons
Head-to-head1 – 5
Model total71% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:30
Gaimin Gladiators 37%Team Falcons 63%
The model gave 63% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 28:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracQuinn
59% · 141 game46% · 96 games
Dragon KnightMalr1ne
Dragon Knight
Clinkz
Clinkzdyrachyo
51% · 37 games54% · 49 games
SlardarATF
Slardar
Underlord
UnderlordAce
60% · 18 games45% · 79 games
WeaverSkiter
Weaver
Clockwerk
ClockwerkSeleri
45% · 129 games46% · 83 games
HoodwinkCr1t-
Hoodwink
Dark Willow
Dark WillowtOfu
50% · 108 games52% · 126 games
Crystal MaidenSneyking
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction correct19:46
Gaimin Gladiators 38%Team Falcons 62%
The model gave 62% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 43:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith Kingdyrachyo
63% · 31 game48% · 50 games
Chaos KnightSkiter
Chaos Knight
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinQuinn
53% · 130 games42% · 112 games
RazorMalr1ne
Razor
Dark Seer
Dark SeerAce
48% · 93 games49% · 204 games
TimbersawATF
Timbersaw
Enchantress
EnchantressSeleri
52% · 175 games54% · 187 games
TinyCr1t-
Tiny
Hoodwink
HoodwinktOfu
51% · 160 games41% · 36 games
Winter WyvernSneyking
Winter Wyvern
Game 3prediction correct23:38
Gaimin Gladiators 36%Team Falcons 64%
The model gave 64% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 45:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerQuinn
49% · 27 games48% · 193 games
GyrocopterSkiter
Gyrocopter
Wraith King
Wraith Kingdyrachyo
56% · 25 games48% · 222 games
TimbersawMalr1ne
Timbersaw
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerAce
54% · 228 games53% · 30 games
AxeATF
Axe
Rubick
RubicktOfu
45% · 382 games55% · 159 games
SnapfireCr1t-
Snapfire
Phoenix
PhoenixSeleri
47% · 167 games51% · 225 games
Crystal MaidenSneyking
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 71%
Series resultTeam Falcons 0:3
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3